Iran off-guard: what next in the Middle East?

The event will look at recent developments in the Middle East, from the Hamas’s attacks on 7 October 2023 to the killing of Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah on 27 September 2024, and consider the Islamic Republic of Iran’s predicament. Israel has weakened the so-called axis of resistance, Iran’s network of allies across the region, from Palestine to Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen, and put Iran in a bind.

The discussion will focus on four main aspects: the Iranian decision-making process following the death of the former President Ebrahim Raisi and the subsequent election of the reformist Masoud Pezeshkian; the possible scenarios of confrontation between Israel and Iran’s allies and the impact on the Levant; the repercussions for Iran of the Israeli willingness to expand the conflict on many fronts; the upcoming U.S. election and its implications for the Middle East.

Programme

Introduction and chair
Riccardo Alcaro, Research coordinator; Head of the Global Actors Programme, Istituto Affari Internazionali

Panel
Maria Luisa Fantappiè, Head of Mediterranean, Middle East, and Africa Programme, Istituto Affari Internazionali
Kheder Khaddour, Nonresident Scholar, Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center
Adnan Tabatabai, Co-founder and CEO of the Center for Applied Research in Partnership with the Orient (CARPO)