A new type of oil curse? The political economy of the Libyan conflict

This is the final event marking the conclusion of the project "European Think Tanks Contact Group on Libya. Towards a new common European narrative on Libya" designed and implemented by the Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI) and the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), with the support of the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation and the Compagnia di San Paolo Foundation.

Libya is once again at a crossroads. In mid-March 2021, the establishment of the National Unity Government led by Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh had given rise to cautious optimism. However, as demonstrated by the appointment of Fathi Bashagha as the new designated prime minister by the House of the Representatives, many risks still loom over the short-to-medium term horizon. The presence of two rival administrations has already triggered a new phase of profound instability.

As shown by the recent oil blockade and the infighting regarding revenues and institutions, the issue of wealth redistribution remains central. This is also connected to the looming humanitarian crisis in the country and the increased frustration and anger of the population after more than a decade of conflict and continuous political bickering. The main goal of the conference is to discuss the political economy of the Libyan conflict from two main perspectives: the impact on domestic business activities and on the economic relations with Libya's external partners, on the one hand, and the implications for societal and political (in)stability, on the other.

Welcome and introductory remarks

Silvia Colombo, Associate Fellow, Mediterranean, Middle East and Africa Programme, Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI)

Arturo Varvelli, Head of the Rome Office and Senior Policy Fellow, European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)

Panel

Ehab Abdulgader, Chief Executive Officer, PetroGas Libya

Hala Bugaighis, Co-Founder, Jusoor Centre for Studies and Development; Non-Resident Scholar, Middle East Institute

Tim Eaton, Senior Research Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme, Chatham House

Mary Fitzgerald, Non-Resident Scholar, Middle East Institute

Chair

Roberta Maggi, Project Officer for Libya, Geneva Centre for Security Governance (DCAF)

Concluding Remarks

Nicola Orlando, Italian Special Envoy for Libya, Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation

Q&A

Working Language: English