Focus euroatlantico, n. 3 (gennaio-marzo 2017)

The first issue of the Euroatlantic Focus 2017 begins with an analysis of the state of transatlantic relations in the first three months of the year by Riccardo Alcaro. The review focuses on the first steps by the new US administration. During the campaign, President Donald Trump had created expectations of strong discontinuity with the traditional policy of cooperation with Europe that all previous US administrations had followed, even accounting for their sometimes significant differences. Three months into the Trump presidency, however, the elements of continuity with the past seem to prevail, on policies if not in the official discourse. A partial exception is Syria, where the US has for the first time intervened militarily against the regime of president Assad. The Focus then delves into Trump’s evolving positions on NATO, the EU and the trade relationship with European countries. An analysis of the prospect for a US-Russian rapprochement follows. Nona Mikhelidze has no doubts: the prospect of a rapprochement with Russia, which Trump has wanted to seek, is distant if not remote in the future. The following section deals with the nuclear deal with Iran, which the US, the EU, Russia and China negotiated with great difficulty in 2015 and which Trump has repeatedly criticized. Riccardo Alcaro spells out the three possible paths Trump might opt for – namely withdrawing from the deal, trying to renegotiate it or complying with it – and puts forward some ideas as to how the EU and its member states could respond. Lorenzo Mariani concludes by analysing the possible evolution of US-China relations and the opportunity that would open up forEurope.