The Middle East and North Africa in 2024: New Crises, Old Conflicts

Developments in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) between mid-2023 and July 2024 point to a continuation of broader trends of conflictual multipolarity amidst heightened forms of great power competition in infrastructure and connectivity investments across the Global South. Defined by new forms of transnationalism and accommodation with authoritarian regimes, Western states displayed general neglect for deeper conflict ruptures in the region, in many ways contributing to lay the groundwork for the tragedies of 7 October and its aftermath. This chapter examines the implications of the 7 October attack and Israel’s ensuing war on the Gaza Strip for the region and Western policy. Particular emphasis is directed at the military and humanitarian domains in Israel/Palestine, the risk of wider regional escalations with Iran and its "Axis of Resistance" partners and the difficult negotiations for a ceasefire amidst tensions in the US-Israel relationship. The final sections address developments in North Africa and the Sahel, as well as the Sudan conflict, emphasising similar trends of heightened conflictual multipolarity and great power competition across Africa as well.
The authors would like to dedicate this chapter to the memory of Prof. Roberto Aliboni, a friend, colleague and esteemed scholar of the Middle East and North Africa.