Military Factors in the MENA Region: Challenging Trends

Although the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has witnessed a long series of conflicts since the end of the Second World War, it is now in the unprecedented situation where nearly all MENA states are involved to a certain extent in ongoing conflict (e.g. in the Iraq–Syria area; Libya; Yemen). MENA states are involved to different degrees in these conflicts, ranging from direct involvement on the ground or in the air, to the arming and training of armed non-state actors. This report assesses the evolution of the armed forces, procurement and the defence industry in the countries of the MENA region, starting with the major regional powers, whose leverage extends across the region. Second, it looks at the middle regional powers, those who have some capacity for power projection but mostly at the sub-regional level. This is followed by analysis of the remaining states, those with little or no capacity for power projection. Finally, the report looks at those states on whose territory war is currently being waged, where governments and non-state actors are vying for control of the national territory. The report ends with a forecast for military development in the region.