Early Warning and Conflict Prevention in the Euro-Med Area

In 2000 the International Affairs Institute (IAI) launched a project aimed at creating a first nucleus of capabilities in conflict prevention in the Euro-Mediterranean framework, with a view to contribute to the development of a conflict prevention ‘culture’ in and about the Euro-Med area, and to the preparation of the appropriate conditions for actual preventive actions in the region. The project consisted of two interacting processes:

The development of tools for a Euro-Med Conflict Prevention System and, in particular, an integrated model for early warning and response planning (EW&R), specifically tailored for conflict prevention in the Mediterranean countries; this includes a dedicated model of analysis and software, the CCP, for early warning activities in the area.

A cooperation programme between the IAI and the Jordan Institute of Diplomacy (JID, Amman) consisting of: (1) a series of seminars on the theoretical and political foundations of conflict prevention in the Euro-Mediterranean region; (2) the establishment of a Conflict Prevention Centre at the JID with the aim of using and testing the IAI CCP model and software; (3) IAI training of the Conflict Prevention Centre (CPC later to become RCCP) researchers for the testing of the CCP software and the creation of a regional database on conflict potentials. The project lasted till 2001 and was founded by the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Published results:
R. Aliboni, L. Guazzone, and D. Pioppi, Early Warning and Conflict Prevention in the Euro-Med Area, A Research Report by the Istituto Affari Internazionali, December 2001 (IAI Quaderni. English Series 2).

Unpublished results:
L. Guazzone and D. Pioppi, Country Conflict Profile (CCP) Software 2nd release, March 2001, Access 1997 prototype version (available on CD-Rom).

L. Guazzone and D. Pioppi, Country Conflict Profile (CCP) Software Handbook, IAI, Rome, March 2001, pp. 61.