Focus euroatlantico n. 7 (settembre 2024–gennaio 2025)

The first issue of the Euro-Atlantic Focus of 2025 opens, as usual, with an analysis of the state of transatlantic relations (accompanied by a series of graphs). Riccardo Alcaro and Luca Barana analyse the nature of Western support for Ukraine and the prospects for European defence in light of Donald Trump's election as US president. The analysis then delves into the evolving scenarios in the Middle East, and US and European action – and inaction – in that theatre. The authors conclude with a discussion of the West’s relations with China, addressing the tensions over Taiwan and the growing technological and commercial competition with Beijing. In the section on US domestic politics, The authors analyse the results of the elections in the United States, which saw Trump win again the White House and the Republican Party conquer the majority in both branches of Congress. They attempt a preliminary assessment of the implications of Trump’s win both on the domestic level and in the US’s relations with Europe. They argue that Trump's appointments in the cabinet respond above all to the criterion of loyalty, which Trump sees as a precondition for implementing a nativist, protectionist and unilateralist agenda inspired by the ‘America First’ principle. Meanwhile, court cases against him have stalled or been dismissed, while Congress has avoided yet another federal government shutdown with a last-minute budget deal. In the special essay, Matteo Bursi and Ettore Greco analyse the prospects for the Capital Market Union, an ambitious project to boost European competitiveness as the EU lags behind the United States and China. The study focuses on the actions needed to finalise this project, such as the Banking Union and the development of new financial tools at the European level, highlighting challenges and opportunities also in light of the recent reports drafted by Enrico Letta and Mario Draghi.