Negotiating EU Enlargement: Scenarios for Future Integration

In the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the European Council extended EU accession prospects to Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia, while reinvigorating enlargement towards the Western Balkans (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia). These actions signal European unity in response to Russian aggression and highlight the importance of the EU’s enlargement policy for peace and stability in Europe. Despite renewed focus, uncertainties remain regarding the approach to enlargement and EU integration. Key issues include the EU’s readiness to welcome new members, security implications and the success of ongoing negotiations. These negotiations cover internal EU reforms, revisions to enlargement policy, and restructuring European security architecture. The outcomes will shape the EU’s ability to accept new states and maintain functionality. As the EU prepares for its next institutional cycle, strategic convergence and gradual, differentiated integration are essential. Effective negotiations and reforms could create a cohesive, flexible EU, while failure risks fragmentation and reduced global influence. The future of EU enlargement depends on navigating these complex challenges.