Back to Nice? Security implications of the European constitutional failure

The negative results of the French and Dutch referenda on the new European Constitutional Treaty (CT) has blocked the process of ratification for an unknown period and has triggered a deep political crisis in the European Union. According to some politicians and analysts, the wound to the credibility of the Treaty is to be considered fatal, given the political and historical importance of the two member states that are not anymore in the position to ratify, while 25 ratification are necessary for the Treaty to enter into force. The prospective of a re-run of a referendum in these countries are very low; it remains possible that a change in the political leadership in France in particular, expected to happen within two years, could open new opportunities; however, we should expect the ratification process to remain on hold for at least some years, possibly forever. [...]