The International Spectator, Vol. 45, No. 4, December 2010

The Future Multilateral Order

Forging Networked Security in a Nobody-in-Charge World
Daniel Hamilton
There is much discussion of a 'multipolar' world in which great power consortia will manage global affairs. Reality will be different. The evolving international order is less likely to be shaped by great power condominium than driven by inbetween peoples and spaces in a nobody-in-charge world. In an era of more fluid alignments, secondary states and non-state actors are setting their own agendas, even as the nature of many regional and global challenges has changed. Statecentric approaches must give room to network-based solutions providing more effective interactions among a broader range of actors, including governments, the private sector and non-governmental organisations.
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China's Search for a Multilateral World: Dilemmas and Desires
Li Mingjiang and Chen Gang
While China will probably become more proactive in its multilateral diplomacy and increase its influence in global multilateral settings, various concerns and constraints make it unlikely that it will completely overhaul or even dramatically reshape the multilateral architecture at the global level. Stuck in defining its identity, China is caught up between posturing as a leader of the developing world on some policy issues and siding with the developed countries on others. China's involvement in global multilateralism is likely to be guided by pragmatism rather than grand visions.
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Russian Approaches to Global Governance in the 21st Century
Andrei Zagorski
The shifting distribution of power challenges Russia's great power ambition and exposes it to growing competition in an increasingly polycentric world. But the emergence of 'rising powers' also provides Russia with greater room for manoeuvre. While remaining a status quo power determined to minimise changes in the international system, Russia is forced to adapt to ongoing change which it cannot halt. This has led to a policy of preserving the benefits of permanent membership on the UN Security Council while, at the same time, increasingly engaging in informal multilateral institutions of global governance, such as the G4, G8 and G20.
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Multilateralism and the EU: a 'Cheap Date'?
John Peterson
Future historians may consider 2010 a defining moment in the evolution of attitudes towards multilateralism. Natural disasters, China's economic rise, and continued sluggish growth elsewhere might well condition future attitudes. Beyond the headlines, three points seem clear. First, building multilateralism is a long game: there is a considerable lag between changed perceptions about the desirability of multilateral cooperation and its realisation. Second, building multilateralism requires political impulse and leadership. Third, the extension of multilateralism requires the right domestic as well as international political conditions. Current political and economic conditions suggest that patience is in order in the quest to build a more multilateral order.
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Emerging Markets and Global Governance. An Indian Perspective
Arundhati Ghose
China's emergence as an economic and military power has given rise to apprehensions globally, related not only to China's cultural and historical 'alienness', but also to its apparent willingness to challenge the global system and architecture of global governance. While non-Western countries are wary of the possible impact on them and on the global order of Chinese actions, they appear to be willing to cooperate with China on some global issues in order to change a system often seen as inequitable and unbalanced. Yet, the West seems to conflate the idea of a rising China with that of other emerging markets. Given their historical, political and cultural experiences, however, their access to power and influence, if and when it happens, need not necessarily take the same route as China. This is true particularly of India; India is likely, at least for the foreseeable future, to remain within the existing paradigm of global governance, though it may seek to adapt the rules and structures to better reflect its economic, political and security interests. This would not preclude cooperation on a selective basis on specific global issues with different partners, particularly in the realm of global challenges such as climate change, non-proliferation, international trade and finance and the global commons, such as space, the oceans and cyberspace.
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The Changing Nature of Multilateralism and Brazilian Foreign Policy
Tullo Vigevani and Haroldo Ramanzini Júnior
An important characteristic of the current international setting is the crisis of the structure in existence, rather than the emergence of a new order. The rise of new interests and demands, as well as the speed of the transformation, make the current understanding of global governance more complex. Brazil, like other medium powers, has an interest in institutionalised multilateralism as a means of increasing its bargaining capacity and hindering the unilateralism of major powers, without being antagonistic to them. It is attempting to increase its weight in traditional international bodies, which provide the grounding for international legitimacy, as well as in new informal arrangements. While this strategy could lead to the establishment of a new hierarchy that brings in countries of growing relative importance, it has put the weight of regional integration into another perspective in Brazilian foreign policy.
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South Africa's Multilateral Challenges in a 'Polypolar' World
Yolanda Kemp Spies
The emerging global order is challenging multilateralism in the sense that power is becoming situational: centres of gravity are overlapping and transient, and the transnational interdependence that characterises this 'polypolar' world challenges small and great powers alike. Emerging powers are forming a 'new middle', straddling the North-South divide with dynamic new multilateral formations, and prioritising economic self-interest. South Africa is at risk of being relegated to a new global periphery if it gives priority to political solidarity with the global South rather than economic pragmatism in its multilateral strategies. Its comparative advantage in the diplomatic arena is its middle power credentials. If it rationalizes its multilateralism to focus on diplomatic niche areas it can enhance its political influence in global governance institutions, despite its small economic stature.
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Turkey's Neighbourhood and Beyond: Tectonic Transformation at Work?
Suat Kiniklioglu
Turkey's neighbourhood policy is being debated intensely in both the East and the West. Indeed, since the rise of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) in 2002, Turkey has gradually implemented a neighbourhood policy that has been changing the parameters in its immediate environs. It has been deepening its political dialogue, increasing its trade and encouraging direct people-to-people contact with its neighbours. Rather than painting Turkey's neighbourhood policy as a sign of Turkey turning away from the West, the sophistication and originality of this endeavour should be appreciated. Turkey's geography, history and its evolving regional identity are conducive to it becoming a cross-cutting power in a multipolar or nonpolar world.
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Book Reviews

Obama's Foreign Policy Report Card
Anna Sims
Review of: America and a changed world : a question of leadership, edited by Robin Niblett, Wiley-Blackwell and Chatham House, 2010
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Re-examining Soft Power in the Age of Obama
Gregorio Bettiza
Review of: Soft power and US foreign policy : theoretical, historical and contemporary perspectives, edited by Inderjeet Parmar and Michael Cox, Routledge, 2010
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Neoconservatism: Once and (Hopefully) Never Again
Mario Del Pero
Review of: Neoconservatism : the biography of a movement, Justin Vaisse, Belknap Press of Harvard University Press, 2010
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Testing EU Foreign Policy in the Middle East
Bruno Oliveira Martins
Review of: European Union policy towards the Arab-Israeli peace process : the quicksands of politics, Costanza Musu, Palgrave MacMillan, 2010
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